Friday, May 21, 2010

CIBC initates coverage of 7 gold stocks

Detour Gold (DGC.TSX) - Sector Outperformer, C$36 price target

Osisko Mining (OSK.TSX) - Sector Outperformer, C$16 price target

Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI.TSX) - Sector Outperformer, C$16 price target

Lake Shore Gold (LSG.TSX) - Sector Performer, C$4.25 price target

San Gold (SGR.TSXV) - Sector Performer, C$6 price target

Rubicon Minerals (RMX.TSX) - Sector Underperformer, C$4 price target

Rainy River Resources (RR.TSXV) - Sector Underperformer, C$5.50 price target

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

China was not a communist country, Jim Rogers said

"My suggestion is that people should move to Asia, and teach their kids how to speak Chinese," says Jim Rogers, the man who made his fortune betting against Wall Street in the 1970s. In 2007 he took his own advice, moved out of Manhattan and set up shop in Singapore. He remains bullish about China and "countries that are going to benefit from the rise of Asia, such as Australia". Marcus Reubenstein reports.

It's 29 degrees Celsius, humidity has just edged past 93 per cent and Jim Rogers is at home pedalling away on his exercise bike. ''That's the tropics,'' he says. ''It's hot and it rains.'' Within five minutes a torrential downpour arrives to underscore his point.

His Asian admirers, of which there are many, would say he even gets the weather forecast right. Rogers does not have an iPod; instead a laptop computer is mounted on the handlebars, so he can keep an eye on the market.

In 1988 Rogers became the first Westerner, possibly the first person, to ride a motorbike across China. He did it again in 1990 and then in a car, with his wife, Paige Parker, in 1999 - on a round-the-world journey that included 5½ weeks travelling, west to east, across Australia.

''These trips brought home to me,'' he says, ''that China was not a communist country. They were not horrible bloodthirsty people, they were extremely hardworking people. Despite what they called themselves, they were capitalists.''

Four decades ago - in the home of modern capitalism - Rogers partnered with George Soros to establish one of the most successful hedge funds of all time. ''A couple of us started a fund and it was successful,'' he says, sounding almost embarrassed about that success.

The Quantum Fund wasn't just successful; over the decade in which Rogers was involved, the S&P 500 advanced 47 per cent - while Rogers and Soros managed returns of 4200 per cent.

''In 1974, there was something called the Nifty Fifty,'' Rogers says. ''They were supposedly the 50 great stocks that would have rising earnings forever. They all sold at huge multiples of their earnings, they were just very, very expensive stocks and we shorted a lot of them.''

Rogers, who today mainly invests in commodities and currencies, again began shorting stocks about a month ago.

His assessment is that China and the US are heading in different directions. The big difference is the direction in which they're headed.

''China is one of the best-run countries in the world right now,'' he says, ''and that's just based on results. They call themselves communists but they're among the best capitalists in the world.''

China has many problems, he admits, including a blocked currency which has helped create an internal property bubble as increasingly wealthy investors have few options for parking their funds.

But, he argues, the problems of the US are far greater. Rogers has been a strident critic of America's massive bailout packages, its architects and its beneficiaries.

''Karl Marx is probably dancing somewhere,'' he says with a grin. ''Because, in America right now, the government owns the automobile industry, the insurance industry, the mortgage industry and the banking industry. The government suddenly owns huge parts of the American economy - that's what Karl Marx said he wanted, and he didn't have to fire a shot.''

As for Australia, he says: ''The only disappointment I've had is that your politicians are as bad as the ones in America.

If the Australian government keeps running up such gigantic debts, the lucky country is going to run out of luck.''

Rogers, who supports neither side of politics in the US, is highly critical of the Rudd government's spending policies and sees no logic behind its decision to impose a super profits tax on the resources sector. ''Further taxing resources is not going to bring out new supply, so it will hurt us all in the long run,'' he argues.

''Do you think politicians are going to find new supplies, much less develop them? If your government insists on taxing the golden goose, it should at least pay off debt so when the bad times come Australia will suffer less.''

But Rogers has praise for the Reserve Bank under its governor, Glenn Stevens. ''I wish your central bank was running the US Federal Reserve,'' he says bluntly. ''Your guys have done a much better job than most other central banks. I didn't say they're doing a great job; still, it's a much better job.

''They [the RBA] see what's going on in the world. Yes, they have the advantage of a strong economy, but at least they're doing the right thing, instead of denying reality.''

And he applauds the Reserve's tightening of monetary policy. ''If anything, I think rates should be higher because there is inflation in the world and Australia could be developing its own property bubble.''

Higher interest rates will push up the value of the Australian dollar, but Rogers says it would be foolish for policy makers to forget how the Aussie dived towards US50¢ less than a decade ago. ''If the Australian economy keeps taking on debt, the next time there's a bear market, the Australian dollar will collapse.''

And he sees a bleak future for any currency backed by massive debts. Top of his list of bad currencies is the once mighty greenback. For which, in great part, he blames the former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.

''In 1998, Greenspan bailed out Long Term Capital Management [the US hedge fund with over $US5 billion in debts], then he bailed Wall Street out again in 2001 because of the dotcom bubble - the bubble he caused because he kept printing money and bailing out everybody in sight.''

Rogers points to Japan, which he argues spent two decades bailing out what he calls ''zombie banks and zombie companies''. Referencing the Nikkei Index - which peaked at about 39,000 points in 1989 and today is trading below 11,000 points - he says, flatly, ''Bailouts don't work!''

Total US government debt is now about 90 per cent of GDP. ''Next time we have a slowdown, or a recession,'' Rogers asserts, ''America has shot its wad. Ben Bernanke [the US Federal Reserve chairman] can't keep printing money - the world is going to run out of trees at the rate he's printing money.''

His negativity towards the British pound is based on similar concerns. He calls the euro a political currency, which the architects of the Treaty of Maastricht got right but the nations of the euro zone got wrong by ignoring their own rules.

''Greece is bankrupt,'' he says, ''whether they acknowledge it or not. Greece should have been made to take its pain, otherwise it will never change. In five months, years or decades later we're going to be having the same conversation, only worse.''

And of the euro zone's latest bailout package? ''The idea that you can solve the problem of debt and consumption with more debt and consumption defies belief.''

B

ut Australia, in the short- to mid-term, should remain a land of opportunity, with plenty of opportunities on the land.

''I would urge anyone to buy a farm,'' he says. ''Farming has been a horrible business for 30 years, so there's fewer farmers and supply is under duress. At the same time all of Asia is becoming more prosperous, so you have demand going up when supply is under pressure.''

Rogers may not have too much time for our politicians, but he likes Australians and would like to see more Australians. ''If I was Australia, I'd be doing everything I could to bring in people and capital to develop the lucky country.''

As for foreign investors? ''I would give them tickets to enter, because you want capital and expertise. Australia was developed mainly by immigrants. How many fifth generation Australians do you know?''

His recipe for Australia is that it should leverage off Asian growth and stick to what it's good at. However, he reiterates his belief Australia will not be prepared for the next economic shock and for a commodities bear market if it keeps taking on debt.

H

e may be one of the investment world's best-known Sinophiles, but he's not an apologist. ''Don't think I have starry eyes about China. It will have a lot of setbacks along the way, as did America. Since the 19th century America's had a horrible civil war, we had 15 depressions, we had periodic massacres in the street and, at times, very few human rights.

''Plato said in The Republic that the way societies revolve is they go from dictatorship to oligarchy, to democracy, to chaos and back to dictatorship.'' China, according to Rogers, is in the early stages of oligarchy. And, America, if it's not careful, is heading for chaos.

Last year the Chinese journalist Yang Qing spent many hours following Rogers around, interviewing him for her book The Crystal Ball, about the Rogers investment philosophy. Chinese media reports say it flew off the shelves once it hit the bookstores. Often people would buy a dozen at a time so they could distribute copies to friends and colleagues.

The book has been published only in Mandarin, so Rogers is happy to wait until his daughters, aged six and two, who are learning Chinese, are old enough to read it to him. In the meantime he sticks to his maxim. ''Most people are wrong most of the time. That's not great insight; it's been proved millions of times.'' And on that point Rogers is certain he's got it right.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Changes made on John Paulson's 13F

John Paulson's Paulson & Co hedge fund released its 13F for the quarter ended March 31, 2010.

Notable Changes:
* Added 16.67 million shares of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to 167.8 million shares
* Added 900K shares of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) to 43.7 million shares
* Added 1.64 million shares of Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC) to 33.14 million
* Added 3 million shares of XTO Energy Inc. (NYSE: XTO) to 13 million shares
* New 40 million share stake in MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM)
* Added 10 million Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) stake 12.75 million shares
* New 3.4 million share stake in Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA)
* New 6 million share stake in Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO)
* New 11.37 million share stake in Mylan, Inc. (NYSE: MYL)
* New 20.18 million share stake in NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE: NG)
* New 25 million share stake in Novell Inc. (Nasdaq: NOVL)
* New 5 million share stake in Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH)
* New 400K share stake in Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX)
* New 2.61 million share stake in Dex One Corporation (Nasdaq: DEXO)
* New 4 million share stake in Boyd Gaming Corp. (NYSE: BYD)
* New 2.7 million share stake in IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG)
* Lowers stake in Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) from 4 million to 2 million shares
* Liquidates Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS), Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq: FITB), Liberty Entertainment Group (Nasdaq: LMDIA), New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: NYB), Philip Morris International, Inc. (NYSE: PM)

Monday, April 5, 2010

Friday, March 26, 2010

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Stock Continues Uptrend

LVS seems ready to finish off a decent week, which saw a confirmed uptrend. Investors who entered LVS in the last month are enjoying a very nice rise that have seen prices go from around $16 a month ago to over almost $21 today.

Sanford C. Bernstein boosted LVS price target to $24 from $22. The analysts also said they would maintain their “outperform” rating on the stock.

Las Vegas Sands will outperform the market because everyone expects a sharp rise in net earnings per share. If there’s one thing investor love, it’s fast-rising profits, because that’s what tends to push share prices higher.

LVS invested billions in building world class hotels in Singapore, Macau, and Las Vegas that are adding more to the company’s revenue and earnings pictures daily.

One group of investors who are loving LVS these days are mutual fund managers. In the past year alone, the number of mutual funds that own LVS has doubled. Why do those savvy investors want in on this stock? It seems they’re counting on the new revenue streams of the Singapore and Macau projects to add enormous profits for the company.

Marina Bay Sands development is set to open on April 27, 2010. LVS has huge ambitions for the development, which is one of the world’s most impressive gaming facilities in a fast-growing market. Company executives have stated that they will break even on $400 million a year in revenue, with some saying that they figure could achieve $1 billion if conditions are right.

If LVS does hit a number like that, investors are likely to be well rewarded.

Shares of LVS are currently trading for $20.93 a share and the technicals look great for the stock. LVS stock has appreciated an enormous amount in the last twelve months, but if the Singapore and Macau operations do extremely well, it’s possible that investors ‘ain’t seen nothing yet.’

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

What do you know about St. Patrick’s Day

1) You will never play professional basketball.

2) You swear very well.

3) At least one of your cousins is a fireman, cop, bar owner, funeral home owner or holds political office. And you have at least one aunt who is a nun or uncle who's a priest.

4) You think you sing very well.

5) You have no idea how to make a long story short!

6) There isn't a big difference between you losing your temper or killing someone.

7) Many of your childhood meals were boiled. Instant potatoes were a mortal sin.

8) You have never hit your head on a ceiling.

9) You spent a good portion of your childhood kneeling in prayer.

10) You're strangely poetic after a few beers.

11) Some punches directed at you are from legacies of past generations.

12) Many of your sisters and/or cousins are named Mary, Catherine or Eileen .... and there is at least one member of your family with the full name of Mary Catherine Eileen

13) Someone in your family is very generous. It is more than likely you.

14) You may not know the words, but that doesn't stop you from singing.

15) You can't wait for the other guy to stop talking before you start talking.

16) You're not nearly as funny as you think you are... but what you lack in talent, you make up for in frequency.

17) There wasn't a huge difference between your last wake and your last keg party.

18) You are, or know someone, named Murph.

19) If you don't know Murph then you know Mac. If you don't know Murph or Mac, then you know Sully. Then you probably know McMurphy.

20) You are genetically incapable of keeping a secret.

21) You have Irish Alzheimer's... you forget everything but the grudges!

22) “Irish Stew” is a euphemism for “boiled leftovers.”

23) Your skin's ability to tan.... not so much. (Only in spots!)

24) Childhood remedies for the common cold often included some form of whiskey.

25) There's no leaving a family party without saying goodbye for at least 45 minutes.

26) At this very moment, you have at least two relatives who are not speaking to each other. Not fighting, mind you, just not speaking to each other.

Have a great day.

Friday, February 26, 2010

China To Purchase Half of IMF's Gold

China has confirmed the intention to purchase 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund at an open auction.

World central banks started to increase their gold reserves after prices on gold began to climb in 2001. The IMF sells gold within the scope of a program to diversify sources of income and achieve an increase in lending.

The IMF announced an intention to sell 403.3 tons of gold in accordance with the adequate decision made by the board of directors of the fund in September of 2009. India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka purchased about 212 tons of the amount at the end of 2009. India purchased most – 200 tons.

China’s interest in international trade is connected with the development of the nation’s economy, as well as with the growing consumer demand in the country.

“Chinese officials have confirmed previous announcements from IMF experts and said that the purchasing of 191 tons of gold would not exert negative influence on the world market. China is interested in the development of the domestic consumer market,” the agency reports.

Most of Chinese citizens believe that investing in gold jewelry is a good way to avoid inflation, Rough & Polished agency said.

The IMF has received the profit of $7.2 billion from gold sales. A part of the funds is to be used for crediting poor countries.

Monday, February 8, 2010

Eric Sprott says the yellow metal could hit $1500 in 2010 and $2000 in 2011.

Sprott told Bloomberg, “I have no trouble imaging we get to $1,500 this year and $2,000 in two years.” During the Q3, Sprott Asset Management was adding to stakes in precious metals plays
- Barrick Gold (ABX),
- Yamana Gold (AUY),
- Eldorado Gold (EGO),
- Jaguar Mining (JAG),
- Silver Wheaton (SLW).

Meanwhile, MAG Silver (MVG), Seabridge Gold (SA), and Kinross Gold (KGC) were also among the fund’s top-15 U.S.-listed equity positions.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

LVS break out today



Las Vengas Sands (LVS) has one of the best line-ups of future casinos in China’s Macau and in Singapore, writes Barclay’s Capital analyst Felicia Hendrix today in a note to clients.

She initiated coverage of the stock with an “Overweight” rating and a $24 price target.

Hendrix’s note follows yesterday’s bullish comments by Robin Farley of UBS on both LVS and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

Noting that Macau is the largest and the fastest growing gaming market in the world, and Singapore has favorably low taxes, Hendrix believes the Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, which opens in Q2, and two parcels in Macau opening the latter half of next year, could become the company’s most profitable ventures yet, she argues.

Hendrix values LVS stock as a multiple of 12.6 times her 2012 estimate for Ebitda, becuase there won’t be a full year’s worth of data on the Singapore and Macau properties until that time.

LVS shares today are up $1.61, or 10%, at $18.23, while Wynn shares are up $4, or 6%, at $67.95.